What are population projections?
Population projections provide information on possible future scenarios of population change. They are based on the estimated resident population as at 30 June of the base year. However, projections are not predictions or forecasts.
What are population projections used for?
Population projections are used as the primary source of future population prospects. The projections provide information on future changes in population size, structure and rate of change.
Resources
National projections
Population projections
A comprehensive link to the latest available official projections, from Statistics New Zealand.
Subnational projections
Subnational Population Projections
Most recent information on subnational population projections with tables on projected population of regional councils and territorial authorities.
Ethnic projections
National Ethnic Population Projections
Most recent information from the projections of the populations of Māori, Pacific, Asian and European ethnicity usually living in New Zealand. Published by Statistics New Zealand.
Subnational ethnic population projections
Most recent subnational ethnic population projections. Published by Statistics New Zealand.
Forthcoming projections
Forthcoming official population projections
Includes projections for labour force, population, ethnic, family and household. Published on Statistics New Zealand's website.
Using projections
When to use population projections
Information on when to use estimates, counts and projections. Created for Population and Sustainable Development website, 2004.
Population projections overview
Highlights features of projections which have implications for policy-making and planning, with links to detailed information on methodology. Website publication by Statistics New Zealand.
Moving population pyramids
A resource on the Statistics New Zealand website, presenting moving age-sex population pyramids based on population estimates back to 1951 and projections forward to 2061. The pyramids are presented in 5-year age groups in MS Excel format.
Using population projections - an example
An example of Ministry of Education use population projections to calculate future national school rolls, for use in forecasts of enrolments and salaries and operations grant expenditure.
Requesting projections
Detailed projection results - Information request form
Including projections by five-year age group and sex, are available on request from Statistics New Zealand.
Ad hoc projections - Information request form
These can be produced by Statistics New Zealand for clients using their own assumptions.
References
Bryant J (2003). Can population projections be used for sensitivity tests on policy models?Working Paper No 03/07, The Treasury, Wellington.
Experts
For further information email the Demography Division of Statistics New Zealand or write to:
Robert Didham
Demography Division
Statistics New Zealand
Dollan House
401 Madras Street
Private Bag 4741
Christchurch