The size and composition of a country’s population can exert a powerful influence on a country’s development. For instance, population size, composition, and distribution influence the range of industries a country can support, the pool of talent that can be called on, the potential of communities, and the demand for and supply of government services. Similarly, the effect people have on the social, economic and physical environments depends on the composition, expectations and distribution of the population.
The reverse is also true: government policies and services can have major impacts on people, and on different population groups in different ways. Some of these impacts may influence people’s choices on a wide range of issues, for example, whether and when to have children, where to live and where to locate businesses.
Population issues and sustainable development
Both the causes and the consequences of change in population dynamics or structure have major influences on New Zealand’s development, and present challenges to sustainability. For example, changes in population size and composition have significant effects on the demand for and supply of services throughout the economy, including government services.
Understanding the issues leads to recognition of the interactions between population issues and government policies – an important part of planning for sustainable development.
For example, the Population and Sustainable Development Report found that New Zealand will continue to have a small population. The population currently comprises just over 4.3 million people, with projections indicating that the population is may not exceed 5 million without significant and historically unsustainable changes in migration or fertility. From about the middle of this century, it is expected that the population may begin to decline in size.
This small population will represent both opportunities and limits for the economy, society, and environment.
Analysis of the effect of these opportunities and limits can in turn inform government planning and policy for New Zealand’s sustainability.