Migration has had a greater influence on population growth in New Zealand and Australia than on most other countries in the world. About half of New Zealand's population is either born overseas or has a parent who was born overseas. Historically, while natural increase (or excess of births over deaths) has provided an almost stable contribution to population change, arrivals and departures of permanent and long-term migrants have resulted in cycles of high net gains followed by years with net losses. Among OECD countries, New Zealand is unique by having the highest rate per capita of both immigration and emigration. Attention has been focused on the large numbers of people leaving New Zealand, with over half a million New Zealanders living long term or permanently overseas. The contention is that some of these people might be encouraged to return to live in New Zealand.
Has the return of expatriates contributed to changes in population growth?
While New Zealanders returning to live in New Zealand contributed about half of all permanent and long-term arrivals in 1990, more recently New Zealand citizen arrivals have been less than 30 percent of all permanent and long-term arrivals. So while there has been an increasing number of people arriving in the country on a permanent and long-term basis, the number of returning New Zealanders has averaged at around 24,000 per annum, with only marginal variation, over the last two decades. Overall, the return of expatriates has played an insignificant role in maintaining population growth.
Can population growth be maintained given the projected slowing of natural increase?
Historically, the two significant contributors to changes in population growth have been arrivals of citizens from outside Oceania and departures of New Zealand citizens. Over the last two decades, changes in immigration policies have supported a significant upward trend in the number of people arriving on a permanent and long-term basis from outside Oceania – with highs of 47,000 in 1996 and 63,000 in 2002, and lows of 20,000 in 1990 and 30,000 in 1998. The arrivals of citizens from outside Oceania were offset by the increasing trend of New Zealand citizens, including some naturalised immigrants, leaving the country on a permanent and long-term basis – from around 30,000 per annum in the early 1990s to around 60,000 per annum more recently.
Given the projected slowing of natural increase, migration and retention of migrants will be key factors in maintaining population growth. However, the return of expatriate New Zealanders is unlikely to make a significant contribution to net migration growth. New Zealanders are likely to continue seeking stimulating overseas work experience. A more dynamic and attractive labour market, and attractive living conditions, might encourage some New Zealanders to return and others not to leave; however, the real benefit would be increased attractiveness to potential immigrants.
This myth is busted
About half of those who move overseas remain overseas for a few years and then return, but this is not true of all New Zealanders. Some people remain permanently overseas. While people migrating to New Zealand tend to compensate for the loss of New Zealand citizens there are no clear drivers which could entice more New Zealanders to return. Even if a larger proportion did return, this would only provide a temporary change in the trends. Returnees also tend to be older, and as a group have similar fertility patterns to the local population. The potential for this to radically change trends in natural increase is therefore small and, if anything, is likely to slow natural increase further.
Where did this myth come from?
New Zealand and other OECD countries have experienced pressures on their labour markets as a result of lower levels of fertility and population ageing. Along with more buoyant economic conditions in recent years, this has resulted in shortages of skilled and unskilled labour. These shortages are likely to continue in the future so the challenge of attracting people, skilled or unskilled, of prime working ages either to stay or to come and live in New Zealand will be a central part of any population policy.
Why is natural increase slowing?
During the last two decades natural increase has averaged around 31,000 per annum with little variation. More recently this has increased to around 36,000. However, the natural increase is projected to slow over the next 25 years (Series 5: 19,000 in 2030) due to the projected increase in number of deaths (as the large number of people born during the 1950s to early 1970s are reaching older ages) combined with projected number of births not varying much from the current level.
Is population growth likely to continue?
The projected slowing of natural increase and an assumed annual net migration gain of 10,000 (Series 5) will result in population growth being sustainable, but at a reducing rate (from 1.0 percent in 2008 to 0.6 percent in 2030). The most uncertain component in population growth is gain from permanent and long-term migration, and projection series allow this component to average out as a constant or a cyclical contribution to population growth.
What are the cyclical characteristics of permanent and long-term migration?
Over the last two decades the cyclic behaviour of net permanent and long-term migration showed large net gains in 1995–96 and again in 2002–03, whereas there were net losses in 1989 and 1998–2000. Analysing net migration by citizenship revealed a strongly cyclical, and increasing, trend of net migration gains of citizens from outside the Oceanic region. This was offset by consistent net migration losses of New Zealand citizens. These losses also display a cyclical pattern (large losses of 38,000 in 2000 and 37,000 in 2008, and small losses of 6,000 in 1991 and 11,000 in 2003). By contrast, net migration of citizens from other Oceanic countries has only increased slightly over this time period (1,000 in 1992 and 5,000 in 2008).
Provided by Statistics New Zealand, 8 May 2009.