This section highlights how five topical population issues have recently changed. The following examples show that we need to keep track of changes to population issues over time, recognising that changes to population over time will also affect population issues.
1. Although the Māori population is young, it’s ageing faster than the population as a whole
The median age of the Māori population is increasing more rapidly than in the population as a whole. The demographic transition (shift from high fertility and high mortality rates to low mortality and subsequently low fertility rates) among the Māori population has been distinctly different from that of the New Zealand European population.
The post-Depression baby boom was largely restricted to the European population, with the Māori transition to lower fertility starting later and being much more rapid. The consequence of these differences is a Māori population that has a younger age structure, but one that is catching up with that of the general population (see Population and Sustainable Development Report 2003 ).
2. From the point of view of government spending and service delivery, population ageing is just one of the key demographic trends
The situation is more complex than this. In terms of the timing of demographic influences, the impact of the 1990s ‘baby blip’ has been felt for some time, while the post-Depression baby boomers will not start to reach the age of eligibility for government superannuation in large numbers until 2011.
Some elements of change will work together. For example, people born around 1990 will reach late adolescence between 2005 and 2010. They will be moving from secondary education into the tertiary sector at the same time as a large cohort of primary and secondary teachers are approaching retirement age.
This illustrates that while different-sized cohorts (waves and troughs) passing through the lifecycle may require service capacity to be expanded and then contracted, the magnitude of the effect on society as a whole depends on the relationship between the cohorts providing the service and the cohorts receiving the service.
3. Youth suicide death rate is no longer the highest suicide death rate in New Zealand
New Zealand has one of the highest youth suicide rates in the world, and it receives a lot of media attention. However, youth (15-24 years) has fallen from being the age group with the highest suicide rate in New Zealand in the late 1980s and early 1990s.
In 2002, the 25-34 year age group had the highest rate - 19.6 per 100,000 (or 107 deaths), compared to 18.1 per 100,000 (or 96 deaths) for the 15-24 age group. The youth suicide rate peaked in 1995, and was lower in 2000 than it had been in 1990. Source: The Social Report 2005.
4. The number of people with multiple ethnic identities is increasing
The number of people reporting multiple ethnic identities increased from 5 percent in the 1991 census to 9 percent in the 2001 census. Multiple ethnicity is highest among the young, and among Māori.
In 2001, 44 percent of those who belong to the Māori ethnic group identified with at least one other ethnicity. One in five babies born in 2001 was identified with more than one ethnicity, including 59 percent of Māori babies. Source: The Social Report 2005.
5. Care is required in the interpretation of ethnicity statistics
Statistics New Zealand no longer prioritises multiple ethnicity responses to place people in only one ethnic group. This used to be done where it was deemed necessary that the count of responses for ethnic groups equalled the total population who specified their ethnicity.
The new standard output for ethnicity data is either to use single/combination counts (ie each person is allocated to one category which identifies the combination of groups stated), or to use total response output (ie counting people in each relevant ethnic group).
Total response output results in the percentage ethnic shares of the population adding up to more than 100 percent of the population with specified ethnicity. It has the advantage of including all those people who affiliate with a particular ethnic group, but may result in over-weighting respondents with more than one ethnic affiliation. (This is easily solved by considering distribution of responses rather than distribution of people).
Use this link for more detailed discussion of ethnicity, or see Review of the Measurement of Ethnicity.