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Tools and resources >
Getting the bigger picture - three common misunderstandings
This section highlights three common misunderstandings about population issues.
1. The ‘average New Zealander’
The ‘average New Zealander’ is a fictional character often used to represent the whole population. The ‘average New Zealander’ of course does not exist and any conclusions based solely on this character may be flawed, because it cannot represent diversity within the population.
This problem can occur in quite subtle ways – for example, analysis based on a synthetic cohort generally does not result in misleading analysis. However the underlying principle of a synthetic cohort is that it is a kind of average and policy planners and analysts should be aware of the risk that the outcome of its use may be inappropriate for some or all sectors of the real population.
2. Population decline can be readily fixed by increasing migration
New Zealand's recent history shows that very little population growth comes from migration. This is unlikely to change in the future.
The relationship between migration and population growth is complex. Migration may provide only short-term solutions to labour shortages or social needs unless migrants also bring their families, maintain a higher fertility on average than the local population, and settle permanently. On current projections, the number of immigrants required to significantly increase New Zealand's population is much greater than has ever been sustainable historically.
Migrants (who tend to be mobile) are more likely to move on if the local conditions do not fit their expectations, and migrants tend to have lower fertility than people in their source countries. Even if their fertility is higher than the recipient country, it tends to drop quickly to the local norm.
This means that while high levels of immigration may quickly increase the potential wealth and skill base of the economic environment, people need reasons to settle permanently. Moreover, neither migrant settlement nor population decline is geographically even and the areas of need may not match the areas chosen as the places to settle.
3. New Zealanders returning from overseas are the solution to migration woes
It has been suggested that attracting New Zealanders back from overseas will offset failure to attract other suitable migrants. However, over the last quarter-century there has been a net loss of New Zealand citizens and there have been periods of net loss of all permanent and long-term migrants. This cyclic pattern is unlikely to change.
Many New Zealanders who go overseas will return. But many do not. This problem is being experienced increasingly by almost all labour-poor countries. Around 500,000 New Zealanders live in other OECD countries and many live in other non-OECD countries.
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