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Tools and resources >
Public policies may impact on the demographics of a country in a number of ways. These impacts may be intentional – eg immigration policies to attract people with skills that are in scarce supply – or may be an unanticipated consequence of policies that had no specific demographic objective – eg a fiscal policy designed to address economic issues which resulted in people with scarce skills leaving.
Policy analysis and development often requires consideration of the potential demographic impact of policy options, including how and where these impacts may be mitigated or managed in line with the government’s desired policy outcomes.
There are four broad areas in which public policies commonly impact on demographics. However, there may also be many other, more subtle impacts – including longer term and/or cross-sectoral effects.
1. Population growth
For New Zealand, public policies that influence the rate of migration (inward and outward) are among the most important influences on population growth.
These policy impacts may be direct, as in the case of immigration criteria, or more subtle – eg in the case of arrangements with other countries regarding recognition of educational and employment qualifications. Over longer periods, various social policies, such as pay equity, family law, child support assistance, and parental income testing of student allowances may impact on population growth rates by influencing parental work/family choices and incentives.
2. Demographic structure
This relates primarily to the age, sex and ethnic composition of the population. Again, policies that affect migration are likely to have some impact on population structure.
Economic and social policies may also influence family size and/or the timing of having children. For example, higher interest rates and/or reduced family support levels may incline couples to defer starting families until they are more economically secure.
Educational policies are an important factor affecting the numbers and origin of school/university age immigrants – many of whom may decide later to remain within the workforce or community.
3. Population distribution
Public policies can have a significant impact on where people choose to live and where they may move to in response to employment, education, and other opportunities. Historically, the biggest relative shifts in the distribution of New Zealand’s population have been from rural to urban and from south to north, but there can be important regional variations within these trends.
Economic policies, such as regional development initiatives, may influence both accelerating and slowing population distribution changes. However, economic policies generally have a smaller effect than stronger socio-economic factors.
Educational policies relating to the viability of rural schools and government services may influence perceived opportunities and lifestyle issues in some areas.
Local government planning policies may be an important factor in moving residents into and out of urban centres. Regional variations in public policies may increase in future years in line with devolutions in policymaking authority from central to local government.
4. Population mobility
Mobility differs from population distribution issues in that population mobility describes how frequently, or readily, segments of the population may move in response to economic and social factors, or policy influences. Examples of policy influences that may affect mobility include the international portability of superannuation entitlements (eg to the Pacific Islands), or the regional significance of terms and conditions relating to employment or housing assistance.
Increased mobility may or may not have desirable social consequences in the short run, but may be necessary to take advantage of regional and structural shifts in economic or life-style opportunities.
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